It is a KOMU 8 First Alert Weather Day through Monday due to the potential of passing storms through the night and then the potential for a more robust round of storms on Monday afternoon. Monday’s round of storms is conditional on how much instability is allowed to remain in the region
SUNDAY NIGHT & EARLY MONDAY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
While better storm ingredients will be out in the plains today, there will still be enough instability here in central Missouri to support a few severe storms this evening and overnight.
Storms are expected to be passing through the evening and overnight hours and could produce some strong wind gusts and localized flash flooding. While the tornado threat is low, it’s not zero. Have a way to get warning through the overnight hours in the event one is issued.
Additionally, since we will have thunderstorms that might move over the same area multiple times a flood watch has been issued for northwest parts of the region.
While some storms could turn severe this evening, the best chances for stronger storms arrive early Monday morning and again in the afternoon/evening Monday.
MONDAY SEVERE POTENTIAL
Lingering storms are expected on Monday morning, while there’s a low chance these are severe. Any activity (even just rain and rumbles) in the morning will dictate what happens in the afternoon.
The central question of this forecast will be how much dry time sets up on Midday Monday. If there is ample dry time and sunshine breaks through our severe weather threat will increase. If cloud cover and rain lingers, the severe weather potential will be much lower. This makes Monday a “low-floor, high-ceiling” event, meaning the impacts could be anywhere from minimal to quite significant. It’s important to stay aware, but there’s no need to be alarmed; these forecasts are meant to keep you informed and prepared, not worried.
If we end up near the floor, we will see a few storms with damaging wind gusts around 60 mph, and hail around the size of golf balls. If we are closer to the ceiling, a few of us could see hail up to the size of baseballs, wind gusts over 70 mph, and even a tornado or two.
Storms are expected to develop on top of mid-Missouri before racing off to the east
The severe potential will be increasing from west to east across the state and into central Illinois.
Storms will exit rather quickly and the severe threat will be much lower after 8PM Monday
Regardless of how the forecast for Monday evolves, it’s never a bad idea to have a severe weather safety plan in place. Take a moment to review your plan with your family so everyone knows what to do and where to go if threatening weather moves in.
LOOKING AHEAD
Once storms move through, a much milder, more pleasant week is ahead, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-60s through much of the remainder of the week, and the lower 60s by the weekend. No additional severe weather is expected at this time for the rest of the week.
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