The WTA Rome qualifying round gets underway on Monday. The final big tournament before the French Open starts with a lot of players trying to get into the 96-player main draw. It is well known on the tennis tour that Rome is a very different kind of tournament from Madrid. The environment is different in a lot of ways. It’s not easy to carry top form in Spain and continue it in Italy. Let’s look at some of the matches on the Monday card.
H2H: 1-0
Anastasia Potapova lost in the qualifying rounds of Madrid, but a large number of withdrawals enabled her to get into the main draw as a lucky loser. Potapova took full advantage of the opportunity by going all the way to the semifinals. However, because Rome uses the rankings from the previous week, before the Madrid tournament ended, Potapova was not able to gain direct entry into the main draw. She has to go through qualifying as the No. 1 seed. Irina Begu lost in the first round of Madrid, so she is certainly trying to use Rome as a time to bounce back and gain some ranking points.
Best Bet to Make
This match should be close, not because Begu is playing well – she isn’t – but because Potapova might be tired after her very deep run in Madrid. Potapova played qualifying matches and then went to the semifinals. That’s a lot of tennis. Begu, on the other hand, should be very fresh after losing early in Madrid. She will have had almost two weeks to prepare for this match. Potapova probably still wins because she is better, but in terms of betting, Begu against the spread makes sense, and it’s for a good price.
That being said, betting on Begu +5.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Begu +5.5 games @2.14 @1xBet
H2H: 0-0
Ashlyn Krueger and Nikola Bartunkova are both struggling. Krueger is 2-5 in her last seven matches, while Bartunkova is 3-4 in her last seven. Both players are looking for a spark as they come to Rome. This is a very important match because both players are outside the top 90. They are therefore in a position where they need to boost their ranking to have a better chance of gaining direct entry to major tournaments. The stakes are high for two young pros who are trying to gain a foothold on tour.
Best Bet to Make
It’s a match in which there is a good price on the moneyline for both players. Which player should you trust, then? Krueger does not have a good record in recent matches, but neither does Bartunkova. Can you learn a lot from that fact? No. You then need to consider the quality of opponent each player has been going against. Krueger’s opponents have generally been more challenging, and Krueger beat Caty McNally, who won a few matches in Madrid. It seems that Krueger is the more battle-tested opponent. The markets slightly favor her here, but a moneyline price is still good.
That being said, betting on Krueger winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Krueger winning @1.89 @Betfair
H2H: 4-2
Dominika Salkova did not get out of the Madrid qualifying rounds. She won one match but not the second one and did not get into the main draw. She did not play any tournaments after losing early in Madrid. Sinja Kraus got into the Madrid main draw but lost in the first round to Karolina Pliskova. Notably, Kraus beat Anastasia Potapova in the qualifying rounds of Madrid. Potapova got into the main draw as a lucky loser and then advanced to the semifinals. Kraus played an ITF challenger event last week, winning two matches and losing one. She obviously wanted to stay sharp before coming to Rome.
Best Bet to Make
Kraus beating Potapova in Madrid qualifying shows she is playing better tennis than Salkova, who did not get into the Madrid main draw, unlike Kraus. Salkova is not playing well enough to earn trust. Kraus losing to Pliskova in the Madrid main draw is not a source of concern, since Pliskova had a really good Madrid tournament, making a run to the quarterfinals before losing to Potapova, the player Kraus beat in Madrid qualifying. It seems Kraus should win this match convincingly.
That being said, betting on Kraus winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kraus winning 2:0 @2.15 @Coral
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Leave a comment