For some time now we’ve expected a weak global smartphone market for 2026. Back in March, we told you that analytical shop Counterpoint was forecasting a huge 12.4% decline for 2026 global smartphone deliveries, and even worse, IDC was looking for a slightly larger 12.9% decline.
Part of the problem is a shortage of DRAM memory chips, which has caused phone manufacturers to pay more for the component and that should lead to higher prices for handsets this year. However, 2026 is off to a better than expected start according to Omdia, which now forecasts a 15% drop in smartphone shipments this year.
Samsung takes back the top spot in global smartphone shipments from Apple during Q1. | Image by Omdia
After Samsung and Apple, there is a huge dropoff as Xiaomi took the third spot with a market share of 11% for the first quarter, flat with its performance during Q4 of 2025. Oppo and vivo finished fourth and fifth for Q1 2026 with market shares of 10% and 7% respectively. Both claimed 8% of the market during the fourth quarter of 2025.
Runar Bjorhovde, Principal Analyst at Omdia, says, “The worst is still ahead as cost-driven headwinds weigh on the smartphone value chain.” He says that consumers are putting off smartphone purchases thanks to the “demand shock” caused by higher prices.
Helping the industry grow shipments 1% in Q1 was the manufacturers’ practice of “front loading.” This means that they purchased DRAM memory and NAND storage components before the price hike, allowing the number of phone shipments to grow before stiffer prices force consumers to suffer sticker shock reducing shipments.
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