The 2024-25 college basketball season was the first in which the NCAA officially incorporated Wins Above Bubble into the selection process for the NCAA Tournament. It’s a results-based metric that allows for the comparison of teams that played vastly different schedules, and it is closely correlated with selection into the field of 68.
A year ago, the 40s in WAB proved to be the chopping block for at-large consideration. West Virginia was the best team left out with a No. 43 WAB ranking, and Xavier was the worst team to get in with a No. 49 WAB ranking.
Miami (Ohio) suffered its first loss in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday but remains a “lock” in CBS Sports Bracketology heading into Selection Sunday because its WAB ranking is 37th. With a WAB score of 1.70, the RedHawks are recognized for having nearly two more wins against their schedule than the average bubble team would.
Why college basketball fans should master Wins Above Bubble: WAB is new factor in NCAA Tournament selection
David Cobb
Every team in the top 40 of WAB is considered a lock for our purposes entering Friday’s action, except for any team that could still slip out of the top 40 based on conference tournament performance. The only team fitting that bill is Saint Louis, which enters the day at No. 39 in WAB as it prepares to open Atlantic 10 Tournament action against George Washington. A loss would drop the Billikens into the 40s, leaving them as a non-lock entering Selection Sunday.
Here is a look at 39-50 in WAB entering Friday’s action:
39. Saint Louis | plays Friday
40. Texas A&M*
41. Missouri*
42. VCU | plays Friday
43. NC State*
44. Auburn*
45. SMU*
46. Texas*
47. Oklahoma | plays Friday
48. McNeese | clinched automatic bid
49. San Diego State | plays Friday
50. New Mexico | plays Friday
*eliminated from conference tournament
Against that backdrop, here are the teams we are comfortable calling locks to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Other categories include the “almost there,” “on the bubble” and “longshot” tiers.
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s latest bracket at the Bracketology hub
Remember, this exercise pertains to potential at-large teams. Check out who has clinched an automatic bid here.
Locks: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson
Almost there: NC State
Bubble: SMU
Longshot: Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cal
NC State really is “almost there.” The odds of the Wolfpack getting left out when the bubble is so mushy feel slim. The only hesitation stems from how flimsy their resume is upon a close inspection. Their best road wins over Clemson and SMU depreciated, and a 24-point beatdown of North Carolina comes with an asterisk since UNC was missing stars Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. A tally of 11 Quad 1/2 victories is great, but there are zero victories against teams ranked in the top 30 of the NET. By comparison, Auburn has four such victories, and Texas has three (including a head-to-head win over NC State). A side-by-side “scrub” of the Wolfpack against those teams in the committee room might be unkind.
Almost there: Saint Louis
Bubble: VCU
Saint Louis is likely to reach lock status with an Atlantic 10 Tournament quarterfinal win over George Washington on Friday. The Billikens are just 3-3 over their last six games and have plummeted in both results-based and predictive metrics following a 24-1 start. But even a single victory will ease whatever minimal concern still exists about their NCAA Tournament credentials.
Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, TCU, UCF
The Big 12 Tournament proved inconsequential for the NCAA Tournament bubble. Longshot hopefuls like Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Cincinnati all wilted early. UCF achieved lock status by knocking out the Bearcats before losing to Arizona in the quarrtefinals. It would be a shocker if these eight teams don’t comprise the conference’s dancing contingent when the bracket is revealed.
Locks: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Longshot: Seton Hall
At minimum, Seton Hall will need a victory over St. John’s in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament on Friday to have a true case for at-large consideration. But the Pirates took an essential first step Thursday by edging Creighton 72-61 in the quarterfinals. With so many other bubble teams struggling, there is a narrow path for coach Shaheen Holloway’s club. The Pirates are still a longshot, but they aren’t done yet.
Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State, UCLA, Iowa
Longshot: Indiana
Because Indiana still averages around 40th nationally in predictive metrics, the Hoosiers are not being pronounced dead yet. But any case for IU would be flimsy since the Hoosiers are not a top-50 team in results-based metrics, which are more closely tied to selection. There is some resemblance to last year’s Xavier team that barely snuck into the field, but even that comparison is a reach for an IU team that has dropped six of its last seven games.
Lock: Miami (Ohio)
Bid thief candidates: Akron, Kent State, Toledo, or UMass
The MAC is on track to produce a bid thief after Miami suffered its first loss of the season against UMass in the quarterfinals of the league Tournament on Thursday. Miami completed the regular season unbeaten and is on track to arrive at Selection Sunday with a Wins Above Bubble (WAB) score of nearly 2.0, which will likely put them in the top 40 of that vital resume metric. The beauty of WAB is that it allows the committee to compare the achievements of teams that have played vastly different schedules, which is useful since Miami did not play a single Quad 1 game.
Lock: Utah State
Bubble: New Mexico, San Diego State
New Mexico and San Diego State will have at least some chance of at-large consideration if they reach the Mountain West Tournament title game. They play each other on Friday night for a spot in the championship. But there is no scenario where either becomes a “lock” outside of winning the tournament.
Locks: Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas A&M
Almost there: Missouri
Bubble: Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn
Missouri has five Quad 1 wins and no losses outside the top two quadrants. Even after Thursday’s loss to Kentucky, the Tigers are still firmly in the CBS Sports Bracketology field as of Friday morning. But “lock” is a high bar to clear with teams like Seton Hall and San Diego State still out there trying to crash the party.
Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
The WCC appears destined to send three teams to the NCAA Tournament after Santa Clara crept from “almost there” to lock status on Thursday morning because of favorable results elsewhere on the bubble. Gonzaga won the WCC Tournament during its final year in the league, but Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara have clearly done enough to be at-large teams in a year where the bubble isn’t very good. There’s not even a question on the Gaels, but Santa Clara’s case was at least somewhat up for debate following its loss to the Zags in the WCC Tournament final. That should no longer be the case, as Santa Clara ranks as a top-40 team across the board in the metrics used by the selection committee.
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